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2018 Marks The Lowest Average Daily Value Change for Bitcoin In 9 Years

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If there was ever any doubt that 2018 was a bear market’s year for crypto, the average daily change should certainly clear those doubts.

Yes, there is still one more day to 2018, but so far in 2018, it turns out that Bitcoin has experienced a negative average daily value change of –0.33%, which is the lowest in 9 years of value recording and the only second year for a negative change along with 2014 (-0.25%).

Bitcoin average daily value change:

  • 2010: +0.82%
  • 2011: +0.76%
  • 2012: +0.26%
  • 2013: +1.11%
  • 2014: -0.25%
  • 2015: +0.09%
  • 2016: +0.22%
  • 2017: +0.78%
  • 2018: -0.33%

btc_value_change-min

What’s also interesting to observe is the daily value change of the years before 2014 and 2018. We’ve discussed in the past how the 2018 bear market shows a lot of resemblance to the chart of 2014.

These figures show that 2013 (+1.11%) and 2017 (+0.78%) both had high daily average changes in Bitcoin value, what also worth mention is the consolidation market of 2012 (0.26%) and 2016 (0.22%). This makes sense when you observe the Bitcoin price charts in each of those bullish years:

p1

2013: +1.11% | 2014: -0.25%

p2

2017: +0.78% | 2018: -0.33%

Remember that an asset which declined by 0.33%, needs around 0.5% to return to its initial price (for example if Bitcoin worth $1000 and lost 33% to $666.67 then it needs to raise by 50% now to raise back to $1000).

Assumptions for 2019

If the pattern for average daily change is any indication for future trends, we can expect 2019 to have a daily value change of slightly under +0.1% (recovery or consolidation year). This assumption is supported by the fact that Bitcoin is yet to experience two years in a row where the price at the end of the year was lower than the previous year:

  • 2010 EOY (end of the year) price: $0.29
  • 2011 EOY price: $4.38
    • (Mid-year price: $29.60)
  • 2012 EOY price: $13.41
  • 2013 EOY price: $817.12
  • 2014 EOY price: $302
  • 2015 EOY price: $429.78
  • 2016 EOY price: $958.24
  • 2017 EOY price: $15,247
  • 2018 EOY price: $3,847.49
  • 2019 EOY price: ?

Source: Coinmarketcap.com

 

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