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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Downside Expected over the Weekend

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From yesterday’s open at $3807 the price of Bitcoin has increased by 8.93% as its currently being traded at $4141.8.

Bitcoin BTC Price

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price has encountered strong resistance at the horizontal level at $4299.1 which is the prior range support. The price has interacted with it two times before forming a cluster around the minor downtrend resistance line with a complex and multiple pattern structure forming. Judging by the cluster, the price is struggling hard to keep up the upward momentum but the resistance is proving to be stronger as the price is starting to put pressure on the minor support level again.

Since the price increased by 33.45% previously coming from $3227 and came to the horizontal resistance at $4299.1 we are now seeing that the price is likely heading downwards as it failed to exceed the prior minor high. The price could go a bit higher than the current levels but I wouldn’t expect to see it go past the bold black like which is the significant downtrend support line which was previously broken and whos retest from above if the price want’s to continue downwards we are likely to see.

Zooming into the 15 min chart I have counted the sub-waves and labeled the last upward structure accordingly. On the chart below you can see that according to my Elliott Wave count we are going to see the price drop from here at first to $3994 which is the prior high and the 3rd Minute wave ending point before increasing again. The current corrective structure is the 4th wave from the Minute 12345 impulse wave.

The correction appears to be a double three correction and as the last third ABC correction is about to end the C wave is to develop which is why in the short-term I would expect to see the retest of the previous resistance for support.

I have projected that the next expected increase could optimally be on the bold black line which is the significant downtrends support level, at around $4360.  This is also the area where the next minor horizontal resistance level is so the intersection serves as an area of significance and interest.

On the 4-hour chart, you can see that the price of Bitcoin is currently in a Minor WXY correction according to my Elliott Wave count which is why after the mentioned expected increase for the price to retest the broken support for resistance more downside is expected.

If the price is in a Minor WXY correction in than a trend continuation will occur or the correction might get prolonged by two more waves, which is why its hard to say how low could the price potentially go, but the first target would be around mid-range from last 12345 impulsive move to the upside from $3700-3460.

Even If my projected scenario isn’t true and the current increase is the start of a larger corrective move and not a correction before more downside and new lower lows, the price is heading for a pullback and if this bullish scenario is in play the pullback could get potentially deeper and retrace around 70% from the ending point of the impulse wave which would be around the $3460-3440 where the ending point of the black arrow in the above chart is.

I would expect this decrease to start on Sunday evening but we are yet to see what happens in the meantime as this current sideways action is sending mixed signals.

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