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GBP/USD – US data shines, but pound unmoved

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GBP/USD has ticked lower in the Thursday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3081, down 0.06% on the day. There are no British indicators on the schedule. In the U.S., key indicators were strong. PPI climbed 0.6%, above the estimate of 0.3%. Core PPI improved to 0.3%, edging above the forecast of 0.2%. Unemployment claims sparkled, dropping to 196 thousand, well below the estimate of 210 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. releases UoM consumer sentiment and the semi-annual Treasury currency report.

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its economic forecasts worldwide, but the projection for the U.K. was particularly bleak. The IMF warned that a no-deal Brexit would push the country into recession, and the damage to the British economy would be seven times as severe as the toll on the European Union. The IMF noted that economic dislocation to border disruption, in the event of a hard Brexit, would be particularly painful to the economy. The IMF lowered its growth forecast for the U.K. from 1.5% in January to 1.2% in April, and for the global economy, from 3.5% in January to 3.3% in April.

The Federal Reserve was on center stage on Wednesday, with the release of the minutes from the March meeting. The Fed left the door open to rate hikes in 2019, provided that economic conditions improved. Some members said that they expected the economy to improve, while others said that rate movement could shift “in either direction based on incoming data and other developments”. The markets have priced in no rate hikes in 2019, and if the Fed continues to leave the door open to higher rates this year, the U.S. dollar could become more attractive to investors.

Markets continue to kick the can down the road

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (April 11)

  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.6%
  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 210K. Actual 196K
  • 9:30 US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
  • 9:35 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 9:40 US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 32B
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
  • 16:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

Friday (April 12)

  • 9:30 British CB Leading Index
  • 10:00 US UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.1
  • Tentative – US Treasury Currency Report

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Thursday, April 11, 2019

GBP/USD April 11 at 11:00 DST

Open: 1.3089 High: 1.3109 Low: 1.3058 Close: 1.3081

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2841 1.2910 1.3070 1.3170 1.3258 1.3362

GBP/USD ticked higher in the Asian session. The pair edged lower in European trade and is steady in the North American session

  • 1.3070 remains a weak support line. It was tested earlier in the day
  • 1.3170 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.3070 to 1.3170

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3070, 1.2910, 1.2841 and 1.2729
  • Above: 1.3170, 1.3258 and 1.3362
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