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Kiwi weakens. Where next?

Overnight news from the RBNZ has hit the Kiwi.

Actually it has only emphasised a weakness that was already there as we can see with a look at 2 of the currency pairs in our Trend Table.

Our medium term bias for NZDUSD has been negative since April when a ‘dead’ cross in the spot  through the 21 week moving average confirmed a slightly earlier similar negative cross in the RSI indicator. Kiwi has deteriorated by 6.5 % since that signal with this morning’s decline reaching our latest .6644 target.  Despite oversold extremes, and likely positive profit taking attempts, a hugging of the lower end of a falling Keltnerchannel, the way is open to the next Fibonacci projection at .6515.

This Kiwi weakness is also reflected, of course, in the AUDNZD.  Positive signals for this cross came a little later than in the NZDUSD with the confirming ‘golden’ cross taking place in early May.

But despite the lateness of the move today’s gains mean that the Kiwi has weakened by more than 3 big figures (2.75%). Here also, the spot is is now tracking the trend defining Keltner channel and we look for profit taking setbacks to be limited.

With our latest 1.1124 target exceeded, a fresh Fibonacci projection highlights potential to 1.1239 , then 1.1359.

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