My greatest discovery was that a man must study underlying conditions, to size them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities. – Jesse Livermore
In this recurring monthly analysis, we will look at three global risk factors in order to assess the current market state and attempt to foresee risks on the horizon. The factors that we will be using, in order of weight, are:
- Global Monetary Policy
- Global Volatility
- Global PMI readings
Together, they can assist us in shaping up underlying macro conditions, so we don’t get caught off guard by some change in market dynamics that was foreseeable.
Global Monetary Policy Stance
We use Global Monetary Policy to evaluate inflation risks, deflation risks, and interest rate risk.
Given the recent growth issues, policymakers have started to ease policy. This is favourable for cyclical assets like stocks.
Global Volatility Meter
We use the Global Volatility Monitor to capture economic growth risks and liquidity risks.Since we are tracking the implied volatility on the S&P 500 and Crude Oil, we can see the composite indicator as “the cost of hedging a price decline” in each market.
Currently, volatility is neither complacent nor high. This confrirms the fairly benign environment that we are currently in. The risk on/off meter (Dow/US10YR) is in a sideways market type, but holding above the median line. So for now, conditions remain constructive for risk assets.
Global PMI Monitor
Source: IHS Markit
We use the Markit/JPM Global PMI analysis as a gauge for economic growth risks, inflation risks and deflation risks. PMIs are known to be a leading indicator for GDP growth rates.
PMIs are the main concern that have central banks easing policy. PMIs are showing lower growth across the globe and even the US is not exempt. We are witnessing lower growth and lower inflation while central banks remain very much accomodative. It remains to be seen what actions policymarkers will take in the future, but promoting growth by easing monetary policy will keep risk assets buoyant via lower discount rates.
To Sum Up
Our Macro Risk Monitor (MRM) is currently showing a rather benign environment for risk assets despite the ongoing concern of lower growth. PMIs warn of low growth, but monetary policy is easing and volatility is low. Any attempt at stimulating growth should actually enhance the performance of risk assets even more. So we continue to believe in a benign environment for risk assets.
About The Macro Risk Monitor
What we are doing is neither new nor original. Anyone with a basic comprehension of macroeconomic theory, and a bit of real world experience, can do the same thing. We’re just doing it for you. What follows is a brief explanation of why we are monitoring precisely Monetary Policy, Volatility and Purchasing Managers’ Index.
- During periods of real (non-inflationary) growth, the main cyclical classes (Developed and Emerging Market Equities, Real Estate, High Yield Bonds) tend to have low volatility.
- Vice versa, during periods of economic uncertainty or outright contraction, cyclical assets have high volatility.
- However, we can also have inflationary growth, which is the best environment for Commodities (Energy, Industrial Metals).
When volatility is high, or global growth expectations (measured via the PMI) are low and monetary policy is tight/tightening, there is a collision of risk factors that produces a high uncertainty/high risk environment that is usually only favourable to fixed income and counter-cyclical assets.
When volatility is low, or global growth expecatations (measured via the PMI) are high and monetary policy is loose/loosening, there is a combination of easing factors that produces a low uncertainty/low risk environment that is favourable to cyclical asset classes.
By using just these three measures, we can create discrete market environments that can assist in selecting the right asset class to target given the current situation.
If any of this is a bit foreign or complex, our Forex Fundamentals Mastery course can bring you up to speed.
About the Author
Justin is a Forex trader and Coach. He is co-owner of www.fxrenew.com, a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial), or get FREE access to the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders. If you like his writing you can subscribe to the newsletter for free.
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