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SIA nears 10-year low price amid 10-year low valuations! (26 May 19)

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Dear all

This week, our National Carrier SIA caught my attention with its 10% fall in the past three months to close $9.17. At $9.17, it has fallen to close to the lows last seen in Oct 2018 and May 2009. In fact, when I informed my clients on SIA on 23-24 May, it was trading around $9.10-9.11 which is the lowest last seen in the past 10 years!

Given the basis below, my personal view is that SIA may be presenting a favourable risk reward setup for a long trade. Do take a look at the basis and more importantly, the risks inherent in such trades.

 

My personal basis

a) Analysts are positive with an average target price $10.94

Based on Figure 1 below, average analyst target stands at $10.94 with 10 buys; 7 holds and no sells. This represents a potential capital upside of around 19%. Coupled with an estimated dividend yield of 4.1%, total potential return is around 23% if consensus is correct. Readers can refer to SIA’s analyst reports HERE.

Figure 1: Average analyst target $10.94; potential capital upside 19%

SIA Analyst 24 May 19

Source: Bloomberg 24 May 2019

b) Attractive valuations vis-à-vis its 10-year average

At $9.17, SIA is trading at approximately 15.8 current PE and 0.8x P/BV. Based on Figure 2 below, these valuations seem attractive as compared to its 10Y average PE and P/BV of 27.3x and 1.0x respectively. NAV / share is around $11.23. According to DBS Research, SIA’s 0.8x P/BV is approximately -1.5 standard deviation (“SD”) against its 10-year average and nearly -2 SD against its 5-year average. In other words, barring any unforeseen major catastrophe or market downturn, such low valuations can arguably cap any sharp downside risk.

Figure 2: Trading at 0.8x P/BV vs its 10-year average of 1.0x

SIA 10Y PEBD 24 May 19

Source: Bloomberg 24 May 2019

c) Dividend boost

SIA is going to XD $0.22 / share on 1 Aug 2019, translating to approximately 2.4%. For the full year, analysts estimate SIA’s FY19F dividend yield to be around 4.1%.

d) Historical support region around $9.08 – 9.20 seems strong

Based on SIA’s chart, whenever SIA falls to around $9.08 – 9.20, a subsequent share price recovery is observed. This can be seen from the lows seen in Jan 2019; Nov 2018; Oct 2018; Feb 2014; Aug – Sep 2013 and May 2009 where share price subsequently recovers. Although past share price performance does not guarantee future performance, the multiple successful tests of the support region $9.08 – 9.20 increases the probability of this support region holding in the future (barring major market downturns).

e) Indicators are oversold

SIA has fallen approximately 10% fall in the past three months to close $9.17. Indicators such as RSI and MACD closed at oversold levels at 24.5 and -0.15.

As usual, with any trading or investment idea, there are always risks. The list below is not exhaustive.

 

Risks

a) A sustained break below the strong support region $9.08-9.20 may fuel further selling

There is no rule that SIA cannot break below the strong support region $9.08-9.20. If this happens with volume expansion and on a sustained basis, it may fuel further selling. However, on the balance of probability, it is less likely that SIA can break below this strong support region coupled with 10-year low valuations, barring major market downturns.

b) Not familiar with the company

As this basis is based primarily on its chart and valuations, I am not extremely familiar with SIA’s business and its underlying fundamentals. There may arguably be some reasons known to the market but not to me resulting in the continuous fall in the share price. Readers are encouraged to do your own due diligence.

c) May also be affected by oil price

According to DBS Research, fuel costs comprise of approximately 33% of SIA’s operating costs. Notwithstanding that SIA has hedged approximately 69% of its FY20F fuel costs, any sharp increase in oil prices may still affect SIA’s earnings to some extent.

d) Not extremely oversold yet

At $9.17, SIA’s RSI closed at 24.6 with 10-year low RSI level at 13.4. Since 2000, there are 45 occasions with RSI lower than 24.6. Thus, even though RSI is oversold, it is not at an extreme oversold level yet.

e) Strong downtrend

Based on Chart 1 below, it is on a strong downtrend as evidenced by its death cross formations and downwards sloping EMAs. Thus, readers have to be cognisant that any rebound is unlikely to be a sharp V shape recovery.

Near term supports:  $9.08 – 9.10 / 9.05 / 9.00 / 8.91

Near term resistances: 9.20 / 9.27 / 9.41 – 9.44 / 9.50

Chart 1: Entrenched in a strong downtrend

SIA chart 9.17_24 May 19

Source: InvestingNote 24 May 2019

f) Susceptible to weak economy or / and disease outbreak

SIA’s business may be affected if economies continue to weaken (perhaps due to on-going trade tensions between U.S. & China or U.S vs Europe etc) and due to outbreak of infectious diseases.

 

Conclusion

In view of the above, there is no doubt that SIA is on a strong downtrend. However, it seems likely that near term potential downside may be capped, as oversold pressures escalate and as SIA approaches its strong support region $9.08-9.20. I have initiated a long position in this stock via CFDs, with the aim of getting a couple of bids of potential profit if any. This is a trade based on potential retracement and not a trend reversal play. Nevertheless, there are significant risks (highlighted above, for example, I am not familiar with SIA’s business and its fundamentals) which we should be aware of. It is noteworthy that as I am a full time remisier, I can change my trading plan fast to capitalize on the markets’ movements (I am not the buy and hold kind). Readers should exercise their due diligence and evaluate carefully. Readers who are not familiar with SIA can take a look at its company website HERE.

 

Readers who wish to be notified of my write-ups and / or informative emails, can consider signing up at http://ernest15percent.com. However, this reader’s mailing list has a one or two-day lag time as I will (naturally) send information (more information, more emails with more details) to my clients first. For readers who wish to enquire on being my client, they can consider leaving their contacts here http://ernest15percent.com/index.php/about-me/

 

P.S: I have mentioned to my clients on SIA on 23-24 May 2019 when it was trading around $9.10-9.11.

 

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