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We Wanted To Win TOTO With The Help of Statistics. Here’s What We Found!

Withdrawable trading bonus
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Winning the TOTO is every Singaporean’s dream.

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TL;DR: We wanted to hack the TOTO with math. Here’s what we found out

  • To have a 100% chance of winning the TOTO Jackpot, you will need to buy 13,983,816 Ordinary TOTO tickets.
  • 54 ordinary tickets are all it takes to at least win something.
  • I have 4 times higher chance of spotting a UFO today than striking Jackpot with 1 TOTO ticket.

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Singaporean’s Guide on how to TOTO

In the game of TOTO, one has to purchase a set of 6 numbers, selected from 1 to 49.

Types of TOTO bet and the cost of each type of bet

Types of Bet Cost Description
Quick Pick $1 The computer to select 6 number at random.
Ordinary Bet $1 TOTO ticket buyer selects 6 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 7 $7 TOTO ticket buyer selects 7 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 8 $28 TOTO ticket buyer selects 8 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 9 $84 TOTO ticket buyer selects 9 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 10 $210 TOTO ticket buyer selects 10 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 11 $462 TOTO ticket buyer selects 11 numbers from 1 to 49.
System 12 $924 TOTO ticket buyer selects 12 numbers from 1 to 49.
System Roll $44 TOTO ticket buyer only selects 5 numbers from 1 to 49. The 6th number is any of the guaranteed winning numbers.

Payouts of TOTO prize:

Group Prize Money Winning Numbers Matched
1
(or known as ‘Jackpot’)
38% of prize pool
(minimum: $1 million or the amount stated)
All 6 numbers
2 8% of prize pool 5 numbers + additional number
3 5.5% of prize pool 5 numbers
4 3% of prize pool 4 numbers + additional number
5 $50 4 numbers
6 $25 3 numbers + additional number
7 $10 3 numbers

What is my chance of winning TOTO?

Prize TOTO odds of winning
Group 1
(Jackpot)
1 in 13,983,816
Group 2 1 in 2,330,636
Group 3 1 in 55,491
Group 4 1 in 22,197
Group 5 1 in 1,083
Group 6 1 in 812
Group 7 1 in 61

source: Interactive Mathematics

For every dollar we spend getting a TOTO ticket, we are risking it by subjecting ourselves to the probability of winning something.

How much do I need to spend to at least win something?

To calculate the probability of winning at least some money, we sum up all the above-mentioned probability to derive at 0.0186. Which works out to be about 1 in 53.76.

This means that one needs to at least fork out $53.76, about 54 TOTO tickets to at least win some money.

Editor’s note: You can use this fraction calculator here.

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Sounds good? Think again.

  • For Group 5, Group 6 and Group 7, the payout is $50, $25 and $10 respectively.
  • Hence, winning any of the group will result in you losing money given that the cost price is at $53.76.
  • Only by winning at least a Group 4 will the “investment” makes economic sense.

How much to win at least a Group 4 then?

  • Assuming we use the same data of the Hong Bao Draw in the year 2017, there are 2,516 Group 4 winners bagging $346 each.
  • We now turn a blind eye to anything Group 5 and below, we calculate to see how much we need to put in to win a Group 4 at least.
  • The odds of winning a Group 4 at least turns out to be 1 in 3,932.51.
  • This means that we need to put in at least $3,932.51 for a chance to win at least $346, which again, is not worth it.

The ultimate chart you need to illustrate the never-ending pursuit of quick wealth (based on 2017’s result):

Group How much you need to buy? How much you win?
(based on 2017’s Draw)
Profit/Loss
1
(Jackpot)
$13,983,816 $3,000,413 – $10,983,403
2 $1,997,688 $89,083 or more – $1,908,605 or less
3 $53,991.25 $1,514 or more -$52,477.24 or less
4 $3,932.51 $346 or more – $3,586.51 or less
5 $849.12 $50 or more – $799.12 or less
6 $415.07 $25 or more – $290.07 or less
7 $53.76 $10 or more – $43.76 or less

The above chart shows that in order for a sure win, one needs to put in so much more money to compensate for the risks and the odds.

  • In order for one to win at least a Group 2, he needs to put in close to $2 million. The returns? A possible change of winning $89,083 or maybe, $3 million.

Data is based on Hong Bao Draw 2017’s statistics:

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source: Today Online

 

To illustrate the low probability of winning a TOTO, we lay out the odds of some life events for reference:

  • Odds of spotting a UFO today: 1/3,000,000
  • Odds of a Royal Flush in poker on the first 5 cards: 1/ 649,740
  • Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 1/662,000
  • Odds of dating a supermodel: 1/88,000
  • Odds of being murdered: 1/18,000
  • Odds of winning an Academy Award: 1/11,500

This means that I have a 4 times higher chance of spotting a UFO today than striking Jackpot with my TOTO ticket.

Extra Reading: Are TOTO winnings subjected to tax?

Should you win the Jackpot this Hong Bao Draw, here’s a fun fact:

  • As winnings from betting is a windfall and do not come from an income nature, it is not subjected to Income Tax.

The post We Wanted To Win TOTO With The Help of Statistics. Here’s What We Found! appeared first on autopilot trading‘s Content

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